With polling suggesting a dead heat between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, it is becoming clear that this election will most likely be decided on the local level, among political microcommunities in the battleground states, especially Pennsylvania, writes Patrick Ruffini for The New York Times.

Pennsylvania favored Trump in 2016, when predominantly rural blue-collar white voters shifted right faster than suburban professionals moved left. Four years later, the state went to Joe Biden as Democrats made significant gains in Philadelphia’s suburbs.

Biden won the suburbs with a 19-point margin in 2020, and Harris now has an opportunity to build on that as this region remains increasingly critical to Democrats statewide. But Harris also has to defend against an erosion in Democratic margins in Black-majority Philadelphia-area precincts and lower turnout in those areas.

Meanwhile, Trump will aim to counter Harris’ Philadelphia numbers by appealing to working-class voters in smaller cities. In addition, the state’s Latino population is trending right and could turn potentially decisive in the election. This vote is increasing fastest in downtowns of smaller industrial cities, such as Reading and Bethlehem.

Read more about why suburban counties in Pennsylvania and elsewhere could decide the presidential upcoming election in The New York Times.

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