Gov. Josh Shapiro’s rout over Doug Mastriano was no surprise when it was predicted using voter polling data. But might have been seen as an upset when viewed through a different lens: Montgomery County community displays of political lawn signs. Philip Bump staked his claim to report this nonofficial political barometer in The Washington Post.  

The Mastriano machine was confident of a win, citing a distinct. local lawn-sign advantage.

The candidate cited evidence from over 1,000 supporters who reported seeing “no Shapiro signs in his own county.”

The truth is, lawn signs aren’t actual votes. Nor do they produce votes. Nor do they serve as reliable indications of political support.

Turns out, population distributions are behind much of the lawn-sign disparity, especially in Montgomery County.

Residential pockets of red and blue voters don’t overlap here. Republicans are therefore more likely to see Republican-candidate signage during errands and neighborhood walks. Likewise, Democrats are more apt to encounter numerous Democratic placards.

Each side, based on anecdotal evidence, can therefore be misled into believing it has an Election Day advantage.

The most accurate bellwether — as Mastriano found out — is the voting results themselves.

More on Montgomery County political outcomes viz-à-viz lawn signs is at The Washington Post.

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A history of lawn signs; spoiler alert, they hearken back to Ancient Rome.