Forecast of Vanguard CEO, Top Strategists: Next Decade One of More Modest Returns

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Vanguard makes overall stock prediction for next decade.

Vanguard CEO Mortimer “Tim” Buckley and the firm’s two top strategists have offered investors a lackluster stock market forecast for the following decade, writes Erin Arvedlund for The Philadelphia Inquirer.

They warned investors that they should expect to see far more modest returns this year and over the coming decade, while also giving a guarded but positive outlook on the global economic recovery.

The Vanguard panel said investors should expect 2–4 percent U.S. equity market returns annually.

That is significantly under last year, when “…we had a return in the S&P 500 of close to 28 percent,” said Vanguard chief investment officer Greg Davis, who participated in the panel along with Sara Devereux, Vanguard global head of fixed income.

“Those are not sustainable returns,” he added. “We were fortunate in terms of what the equity markets produced for the last decade. It is unlikely that we will see the same type of returns going forward.”

The investment giant also expects to see inflation moderate over the next few years and go back down to the 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent range from its current 7 percent.

Read more about Vanguard CEO Mortimer “Tim” Buckley’s stock market forecast in The Philadelphia Inquirer.