Audubon-based PJM Interconnection is forecasting that the region will experience a power reserve shortfall beginning in June 2027, writes Hannah Frances Johansson for Technical.ly.
This comes from the slow replacement of retiring power plants combined with growing demand from electrification and data centers, according to PJM officials.
If nothing changes, said Jeff Shields, senior manager of external communications, the area will be more vulnerable to outages.
PJM, the largest power grid operator in the country, coordinates electricity flow across a 13-state region and the District of Columbia. Three years ago, it warned the risk of power outages would rise due to “reliability risks” and later predicted a capacity shortage could occur as early as June 2026. Although that deadline was pushed back, electric supplies are now expected to fall short of required reserves for June 2027 through May 2028.
The reserve margin is a supply of electricity reserved for emergencies or unforeseen situations. If current conditions continue, this could be the first time PJM fails to meet its reliability requirements. While current supplies cover predicted demand, they may fall short if unexpected problems arise.
Government organizations and advocacy groups are working on solutions to address the primary challenge: the rapid growth of data centers.
Read more about PJM and its forecast for the coming year in Technical.ly.
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