After years of increasing enrollment, a demographer is forecasting that Lower Merion School District will see a reverse in this trend and possibly lose hundreds of students over the next decade, writes Richard Ilgenfritz for the Main Line Times & Suburban.

Richard Grip is executive director of Statistical Forecasting, a firm that has been providing demographic services for schools since 1998. The firm was recently hired by Lower Merion School District to project its future enrollment due to the unexpectedly high enrollment growth during the last 15 years.

“What we’re projecting in the next 10 years is a loss,” said Grip, “of between 444 and 509 students in the student population.”

According to his study, over the next decade, K-4 schools are forecast to lose around 20 to 45 students, while grades 5 to 8 could lose between 129 and 157 students. Meanwhile, the largest decrease will come in the high schools, where the study projects a decrease of between 295 and 307 students.

The study looked at the projected enrollments in the district’s schools through the 2031-2032 school year, non-public school attendance, and the effects of new housing on the district.

Read more about the Lower Merion School District in the Main Line Times & Suburban.