While things are expected to start improving by Memorial Day, it will take years for the economy to fully recover, writes Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, for The Philadelphia Inquirer.
Coronavirus is causing unseen economic damage, including the loss of jobs that will top 20 million by the end of April.
However, with many businesses set to reopen next month, things should start to improve soon as GDP and jobs rise again. As businesses begin restarting and with the federal government providing massive support, it is expected the recession will end in summer.
However, this assumes that the loosening of social distancing rules will not renew the spread of infections. A second wave of the virus would result in a cataclysmic double-dip recession that would be considered an economic depression.
The key factor for a sustainable economic recovery is a vaccine, which seems to be on track for the middle of 2021.
“Until then, any economic recovery will remain something of a slog, characterized by halting growth and high single-digit unemployment, wrote Zandi. “And even then, the economy won’t be in full swing and fully recovered until mid-decade.”
Read more in The Philadelphia Inquirer here.